Four league games left. Now the table stops being a mood and becomes a fixture list.

The proper title fights are England, Spain and Italy. Germany still has jeopardy, because Stuttgart are flying and Dortmund still have to see them, but a seven-point lead with four to play is not the same pressure as Spain's dead heat or Italy's one-point scrap. Let's break down the tactics of the run-in.

England: Palace Have The Momentum, London Red Have The Seat

London Red lead ENG Division 1 on 66 points, Crystal Palace sit on 64, and Manchester Blue are just about alive on 61. The numbers don't lie: Palace's listed six-match form is WWWDWW, worth 16 points from 18. London Red's is LDDWWD, worth nine. That is the whole tension.

London Red's run-in is Fulham at home, Liverpool at home, Chelsea away, then Crystal Palace at home. Palace have Brighton at home, Nottingham away, Fulham at home, then London Red away. There is your title race: not abstract, not sentimental, a direct final-day lever.

Head-to-head matters. Palace and London Red drew 0-0 at Palace on 8 April, so the return at London Red is still live. Manchester Blue have beaten London Red twice, both 1-0, but Palace have taken four league points from Manchester Blue: 0-0 away and 1-0 at home. That leaves Manchester Blue needing a collapse above them, not just a strong finish.

From a tactical perspective, Palace are the side carrying the better rhythm: 46 goals for, 15 against, and the best goal difference in England's top two at +31. London Red remain the control side: 40 for, 12 against, +28, and still top. But form is not decoration in a run-in. It is pressure applied every three or four days.

Prediction: Crystal Palace, by the thinnest edge. If they stay within striking distance until Gameweek 38, that final trip to London Red becomes a title match.

Spain: Same Points, White Edge

ESP Division 1 is the cleanest race on the board. Madrid White and Madrid Red both have 76 points after 34 games. Madrid White sit top because their goal difference is +46; Madrid Red's is +32. Barcelona are 10 points back on 66, technically alive with 12 to play for, but that needs two Madrid collapses. Properly, this is a derby title race.

Madrid White's last four: Vigo at home, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria away, Vallecas at home, Sevilla Red away. Madrid Red's: Granada at home, Girona away, Alaves at home, Donostia-San Sebastián away. Neither run-in is nasty enough to excuse a slip.

The head-to-head is wonderfully unhelpful: Madrid White 0-0 Madrid Red, then Madrid Red 0-0 Madrid White. No goals, no separation, no psychological edge. So the race drops back to consistency and goal difference. Madrid White have the better six-match form string, WDWDWW against Madrid Red's WDWWDD, and a 14-goal advantage in goal difference.

Prediction: Madrid White. Not because Madrid Red are weaker, but because White have already built the buffer that matters when the points column is identical.

Italy: Napoli Lead, Firenze May Decide It

ITA Division 1 is the best football race of the lot. Napoli lead on 65, Milano Blue are one point back on 64, and Firenze sit third on 61. Four games. Four points across three clubs. Proper.

Napoli's run-in is La Spezia at home, Catanzaro away, Empoli at home, Lazio away. Milano Blue get H Verona at home, Roma at home, Parma away, then Firenze at home. Firenze have Sassuolo at home, Monza away, H Verona at home, then that final-day visit to Milano Blue.

The head-to-head record tells you why this is still live. Milano Blue beat Napoli 1-0 in February; Napoli answered with a 3-0 win in May. Split points, Napoli better aggregate. Firenze have already hurt Napoli, winning 2-1 away and drawing 0-0 at home. Firenze also beat Milano Blue 2-1 in April, with the return still to come on the last day.

Momentum favours Napoli: WDWWWW, 16 points from 18. Milano Blue's WLDWDW is solid rather than scary. Firenze's LDLWLW is too uneven for a title charge unless they win out and the top two blink.

Prediction: Napoli. The lead is small, but the fixture shape and form line are both on their side. Milano Blue's final-day Firenze match is a trap with teeth.

Germany: Dortmund Should Finish It, Stuttgart Are The Warning Light

DEU Division 1 is not as tight at the top, but it has one dangerous twist. Dortmund lead with 73 points. Leverkusen have 66, Stuttgart 65, Frankfurt 64. Dortmund's margin is seven, yet Stuttgart's form is perfect: WWWWWW.

Dortmund's last four are Bochum at home, Berlin away, Stuttgart at home, Hannover away. That is a title-winning path if they handle their work. Leverkusen still have Berlin, Stuttgart, Hannover and Hoffenheim. Stuttgart's route is brutal: Frankfurt away, Leverkusen at home, Dortmund away, Heidenheim at home. If Stuttgart are still alive by the time they go to Dortmund, they will have earned it.

The head-to-heads explain why Dortmund are still heavy favourites. They took four points from Leverkusen, winning 1-0 at home and drawing 0-0 away. They beat Frankfurt 2-1 twice. Stuttgart did beat Dortmund 2-0 in April, and the return is still to come, but that is a chase route rather than control of the race.

Prediction: Dortmund. Stuttgart have the momentum, but Dortmund have the table, the softer closing pair around the Stuttgart match, and enough direct head-to-head work already banked.

Laura's Call

England: Crystal Palace.

Spain: Madrid White.

Italy: Napoli.

Germany: Dortmund.

The tightest pure race is Spain. The best tactical run-in is Italy. The most dramatic final day, if the table holds its nerve, is England. Credit where it's due: Season 3 has left us with four games and no hiding place.