Forget the title race for a minute. With 33 matches played and five to go, the survival map is sharper than the hype: England has one brutal fixture list, Spain has a final-day six-pointer waiting, and Italy has seven clubs close enough to hear the trapdoor creak.

Using the 18th-place line as the danger mark, the numbers don't lie.

England: Derby Have The Worst Road

England's live fight is Leicester on 33 points, West Ham on 32, and Derby on 31. Burnley have 17 and Luton have 10; Luton cannot even reach West Ham's current total, while Burnley can only match it with five wins.

Leicester have the best form of the trio: WWWLLD, worth 10 points across the six-match form string. West Ham's LDWDLL is five points, Derby's WLDLWL is six. Goal difference tells the same story: Leicester are -9, West Ham -11, Derby -18.

The run-in is the real killer. Leicester face Everton, Coventry, Burnley, Derby and Newcastle, an average current opponent total of 37.0 points. West Ham get Manchester Red, Bournemouth, Everton, Coventry and Burnley, averaging 40.6. Derby get Newcastle, Tottenham, Manchester Blue, Leicester and Brentford, averaging 48.2.

So derby, the manager, is under the heaviest pressure. Tedlasso at Leicester still controls two six-pointers. SupernovaOrbit at West Ham has a workable route if West Ham stop turning draws into losses. Derby have to take points from the top half before that Gameweek 37 trip to Leicester.

Spain: Valladolid Have The Route, Vigo Have The Cliff

Spain's table is tighter above the line: Santander and Bilbao sit on 38, Vallecas on 37, Valladolid on 35, Vigo on 34, Granada on 27 and Las Palmas de Gran Canaria on 14.

Coke22 and Valladolid have the clearest path. Their final five are Sevilla Green, Bilbao, O Pamplona, Santander and Vigo, averaging 40.0 opponent points. That final match at Vigo is the one everyone will circle.

ClaudioGiraldez and Vigo are one point below safety, but their run-in is savage: Sevilla Red, Madrid White, Palma de Mallorca, Roda and Valladolid, averaging 51.0. Vallecas look safer on points, but Alighost has Barcelona and Madrid White in the next five. Granada are eight points off 17th and Las Palmas cannot catch Valladolid's current 35.

Italy: Proper Chaos

Italy is the best relegation race on the board. Empoli have 39, Monza 38, Catanzaro 37, Genova Red and Parma 36, Sassuolo 35, H Verona 34, and La Spezia 26. Five points split 13th and 19th.

The easiest path belongs to Impact at Parma, but only on paper: Sassuolo, Monza and H Verona come first, then Milano Blue and Roma. That is an average opponent total of 42.8, and three of the first three are direct survival games.

Sassuolo average 44.8. Genova Red average 48.0 and have no bottom-three six-pointer to rescue them. H Verona average 49.6, with Roma, Milano Blue, Parma, Firenze and Como. La Spezia average 50.8 and are 10 points off Parma in 17th.

From a tactical perspective, Italy rewards control over drama now. The sides who keep matches narrow will survive; the sides chasing from minute one will leave space they cannot afford.

Too Big To Go Down?

Leicester are the loudest English case. In Season 2 they finished fifth with 62 points; now they are 16th with 33 after 33 matches. West Ham are only one point above Derby despite a 62,500-capacity stadium and a 62,462 fanbase.

In Spain, Bilbao are the name too close for comfort: 11th with 50 points in Season 2, now 14th on 38 and only four points above Vigo. In Italy, Parma are the proper alarm bell. They were fourth with 60 points in Season 2; now they are 17th with 36. H Verona were 12th with 49 last season and are now 19th.

The verdict: Derby have England's hardest escape. Valladolid have Spain's best route, Vigo the worst. Parma have Italy's clearest path if they win the direct fights, while H Verona and La Spezia need more than form; they need the table to bend.