Eindhoven have played Ajax and Feyenoord four times this season and lost all four, by an aggregate of 9-2. They are still level on 55 points at the top of the Dutch league, and that record may be the best thing about their title chances.

Ajax lead only on goal difference, +37 to +29, with Feyenoord two back on 53. All six meetings between the three are finished. Ajax took 10 points from 12 against their rivals and Feyenoord took seven, but those points are already in the table. The last 12 rounds are all against the other 17 clubs, and this is what each has done against them in 22 games:

• Eindhoven (PSV): 55 points, W17 D4 L1, goals 47-11
• Feyenoord (Slice): 46 points, W13 D7 L2, goals 48-15
• Ajax (Huggo): 45 points, W13 D6 L3, goals 40-10

Who has the momentum

Not Ajax. They have gone three league games without a goal: 0-0 with Velsen-Zuid, 0-1 at Zwolle, 0-0 with Volendam. Nobody at the club has more than eight league goals, while Feyenoord's Santiago Giménez has 19.

Feyenoord won 14-0 at Bunschoten-Spakenburg in the cup and 9-0 against Kralingen-Crooswijk in the past week, with a 1-0 defeat at Volendam in between. Over their last five games against the rest, Eindhoven have 11 points, Feyenoord eight and Ajax six.

Eindhoven's worry is at the other end. They drew 3-3 at 14th-placed Velsen-Zuid on Saturday, and they carry the only continental commitment of the three, at Salzburg on 23 November. Ajax have played no continental football this season and have the kindest run on paper. Their remaining opponents average 1.14 points a game, against 1.18 for Eindhoven and 1.20 for Feyenoord, though Ajax play seven of the 12 away. Gameweek 27 sends Ajax to bottom club Kralingen-Crooswijk and brings 19th-placed Arnhem to Eindhoven.

I simulated the rest of the season. On full-season goal records, Ajax win the title 57% of the time, Eindhoven 27% and Feyenoord 16%. Using only the top three's records against the other 17, which is the sample that matches the run-in, it becomes Eindhoven 45%, Ajax 39%, Feyenoord 16%. Same clubs, same fixtures. The swing is entirely those four defeats.

England: a mirror image

Declaration of interest: I am an Arsenal supporter, and London Red is this game's version of them.

Biarritz's Liverpool lost 4-2 at home to Manchester Red on Saturday and lost Alisson until 7 December, which is seven league games. Sjow's London Red replied with 0-0 at Bournemouth, straight after 0-0 with Tottenham, so a gap of five became only four: 53 to 49.

London Red have not conceded in seven league games, since Liverpool won 1-0 there on 7 October. Liverpool have scored 18 and conceded 11 in the same seven. Their remaining opponents average an identical 1.33 points a game, and Liverpool have seven home games to London Red's six. One of those is London Red on the final day, 23 December. If London Red are within three by then, the last game decides it.

Gameweek 27 sends Liverpool to Fulham, who won 3-1 at Liverpool in August, while London Red host 19th-placed Coventry. The simulation says Liverpool 72%, London Red 26%, Manchester Red under 1%. It cannot see the Alisson injury, so I would shade that towards London Red, but not by enough.

The date nobody has circled

Five contenders play continental knockout ties on Monday 23 November and then go away in the league two days later:

• London Red: at Madrid White, then at Aston Villa
• Eindhoven: at Salzburg, then at Volendam
• Paris: at Barcelona, then at Rennes
• Marseille: at Porto, then at Nice
• Porto: host Marseille, then at Famalicão

Liverpool, Ajax, Feyenoord, Lisboa and Benfica have no such tie scheduled.

Elsewhere

• France: Paris 52, Marseille 50. They drew 1-1 in October and do not meet again. Paris have 45 goals to Marseille's 28, which is why a two-point gap simulates as Paris 91%, Marseille 8%.
• Portugal: Lisboa have 80 goals in 26 games and lead Porto by five. Benfica have won all seven league games since the halfway point, 15-1 on aggregate, and visit Lisboa on 25 November, but they are 10 back. Lisboa 98%.
• Germany: Bayern are eight clear of Dortmund. Bayern 86%.
• Italy: A week ago I called Roma's lead hollow. It has since grown from four points to seven. Milano Blue are the form side, with 19 points from 21 since the halfway point and goals of 22-2, but they are nine behind. Roma 74%.
• Spain: Barcelona are 11 clear. Barcelona 96%.

The calls

• Netherlands: Eindhoven, by a point, on about 82
• England: Liverpool, and it pains me to type it
• France: Paris
• Portugal: Lisboa
• Germany: Bayern
• Italy: Roma
• Spain: Barcelona

The percentages come from a simple Poisson model built on goals scored and conceded this season, lightly pulled towards each league's average. Home advantage comes from 420 matches since the halfway point (451 home goals, 394 away), goal difference separates level clubs, and each league ran at least 30,000 times. It knows nothing of injuries, transfers or tactics.