Four points from fifteen. That is what Roma have taken from the four clubs chasing them in Italy's top flight: four draws and a 5-0 home defeat by Milano Blue. They still go into Gameweek 25 four points clear. No leader in Europe looks less secure.

Italy: a leader without a statement win

• Roma — 47 pts
• Milano Red — 43
• Torino White — 41
• Milano Blue — 40
• Napoli — 39

Five clubs, eight points, 14 games each. Roma have won the league against everyone else, collecting 43 points from 19 games against teams outside the top five. Here is the mini-league among the top five:

• Milano Blue — 12 pts from 6 games (W3 D3 L0), goals 14-4
• Milano Red — 7 from 4
• Torino White — 5 from 4
• Roma — 4 from 5
• Napoli — 2 from 5

Milano Blue, under JavierZanetti, are the in-form side. They have won five league games in a row, taken 16 of their last 18 points and scored 43 league goals, nine more than anyone else in the division. Their weakness is the reverse of Roma's: all four of their league defeats have come against clubs outside the top five.

Napoli won the title last season with 75 points. Since then, looplab's side have taken nine points from their last ten games.

Roma's manager (GreenFuryx3 in-game) has been through a bad patch before. In a Discord debate this week about patience with struggling managers, he pointed to his own record:

I was also around same position with Roma last season... At the end I finished 4th and now leading Serie A

These dates will decide it. Milano Red play three of their rivals in a week: away at Torino White in GW27 (14 Nov), away at Roma in GW28 (18 Nov), then Milano Blue at home in GW29 (21 Nov). Roma finish with Torino White (GW37) and Napoli (GW38), both in Rome. Torino White have the hardest run-in: seven of their 14 opponents are in the top eight, and they finish away at Roma and then at home to Milano Blue. Roma do have one advantage: they are out of the cup and not in Europe, so they have only league games left. Milano Blue still have a domestic cup tie and a European game on 23 Nov.

England: it ends at Anfield

Liverpool have 50 points and London Red 47. The final round in Gameweek 38, on Wednesday 23 December, is Liverpool v London Red.

Liverpool won the reverse fixture 1-0 in London on 7 October. That is London Red's only defeat in their last six games. Since then, Sjow's side have won five in a row without conceding: 1-0, 1-0, 5-0, 2-0, 1-0. They have the best defence in the league (12 conceded). Biarritz's Liverpool have lost only twice all season and took 16 of their last 18 points. But their 0-0 at home to Burton-upon-Trent in GW24 cut the gap from five points to three.

The two run-ins are almost even. Liverpool's remaining opponents average 32.4 points and London Red's average 31.6. Liverpool have eight home games left and London Red seven, and London Red also have a European trip to Madrid White. Burton (traener) are third, ten points back.

As a lifelong Gooner I should declare an interest. London Red's defence is good enough to win a title. But Liverpool are three points ahead, have the better goal difference (+23 to +20), won the first meeting and play the last one at home.

Germany: a crucial week in late November

Bayern have 59 points, Dortmund 54 and Frankfurt 52. Three fixtures between the contenders fall within eight days:

1. GW29 (21 Nov) — Frankfurt v Dortmund
2. GW30 (25 Nov) — Bayern v Frankfurt, Leverkusen v Dortmund
3. GW31 (28 Nov) — Leverkusen v Bayern

DerKaiser's Bayern have already beaten Dortmund home and away (1-0 both times) and won 3-2 in Frankfurt. They took 33 of the last 36 points available. Outside that late-November week, their run-in is gentle: their opponents average 28.9 points, the lowest of the three contenders. krille120's Dortmund have the division's best defence, with nine goals conceded in 24 games, but in GW29 and GW30 they go to Frankfurt and then Leverkusen. Fitz's Frankfurt have drawn four of their last six and play Dortmund and then Bayern back to back.

Netherlands: no head-to-heads left

Ajax have 54 points, Eindhoven 51 and Feyenoord 50. All six meetings between the three have been played, and Ajax took 10 of their 12 points. From here it is about who drops points against the rest. The run-ins are almost identical: opponents average 28.8 points for Ajax, 28.1 for Eindhoven and 29.0 for Feyenoord. Huggo's Ajax have drawn three of their last six, including a 0-0 with Velsen-Zuid in GW24. Slice's Feyenoord have the best last-ten record of the three, with 22 points. Eindhoven have slowed down: 28 points from their first 12 games, 23 from the next 12, and they still have European games to play.

France, Portugal and Spain

France: Paris have 48 points, Marseille 44 and Brest 41. Paris have taken seven of nine points against the other two. Brest host both of them: Marseille in GW27 (14 Nov) and Paris in GW34 (9 Dec). Felpa35's Brest are unbeaten in six (14 points) and have only league games left. Marseille have drawn four of their last six.

Portugal: Lisboa have 59 points, Porto 54 and Benfica 49. Lisboa have scored 74 goals in 24 games and taken 28 of their last 30 points. Against their rivals, though, they have only two points from nine: a 2-1 home defeat by Porto, then draws at Benfica (3-3) and Porto (2-2). One meeting is left, Lisboa v Benfica in GW30 (25 Nov). Benfica have taken 16 of their last 18 points. Porto are fading, with 30 points from their first 12 games and 24 from the next 12.

Spain: Barcelona are 13 points clear. That race is effectively over.

The verdict

• England — Liverpool. I expect it to go to the last day at Anfield, and I expect Liverpool to win it there.
• Italy — Roma, narrowly. They have taken 2.26 points a game against non-contenders. Milano Blue need seven more points than Roma over 14 games just to draw level. If Milano Red win in Rome on 18 November, I'll reconsider.
• Germany — Bayern. A five-point lead, wins over both rivals and a gentle run-in outside that one week.
• Netherlands — Ajax, but only just. Feyenoord's form makes them the outside bet.
• France — Paris. Brest's two home games against the top two will decide who finishes second.
• Portugal — Lisboa. Their record against rivals is poor, but only one of those games is left.