Bayern's 15-match winning run in the league ended at Wolfsburg on Saturday. ToniKroos's side had seven shots, put three on target and scored with all three to win 3-2, with Pedro Abreu named man of the match. DerKaiser's Bayern are still five points clear, and the reason tells you a lot about how this season's titles will be won.

Every top flight has 15 rounds left. I've gone through the head-to-head record in each live race: who has already beaten their rivals, and who still has to.

Germany: Bayern Beat the Rivals, Lose to the Rest

• Bayern 56 pts
• Frankfurt 51
• Dortmund 51
• Hoffenheim 45

Bayern have taken 10 of a possible 12 points from their three nearest challengers. They beat Dortmund 1-0 home and away, won 3-2 at Frankfurt and drew 1-1 at Hoffenheim. All three of their defeats came away to clubs currently outside the top six: 6-0 at Stuttgart, 3-1 at Mönchengladbach and now Wolfsburg. At home they are 11W 1D 0L with a 28-4 goal record. Away they have conceded 18.

The chasers' records point the same way. krille120's Dortmund have lost twice, both times to Bayern. Fitz's Frankfurt have also lost only twice, to Dortmund and then Bayern in consecutive rounds, and are unbeaten in 12 since. Neither has lost to a club outside this group.

Their run-ins are very different. Dortmund have no Bayern games left, so they need Bayern to drop points elsewhere; Dortmund's own remaining opponents average 12.4th in the table. Frankfurt play four top-six sides in five games between 18 November and 2 December: Leipzig, Dortmund, Bayern away and Hoffenheim away. Bayern host Hoffenheim on Saturday. They have eight away games left, and six are against bottom-half sides, which is exactly the kind of game they have been losing.

Portugal: Porto Won the Head-to-Heads, Lisboa Lead the Table

• Lisboa 56
• Porto 53
• Benfica 46

This is the closest race at the top of any league here. Porto took four of six points from SAIKARU's Lisboa: 2-1 away in July and 2-2 at home on 17 October. That July defeat is still Lisboa's only loss. They are unbeaten in 21 since, have scored 73 goals in 23 games, and have 28 points from their last ten to Porto's 20.

SoccerversePortugal's Porto are almost unbeatable at home (21-3, ten clean sheets in 12), but they have lost away at Vila do Conde and Benfica. The two leaders don't meet again, so the remaining fixtures decide it. Lisboa still host Benfica, unbeaten in 19, on 25 November and visit fourth-placed Faro. Porto go to Faro on 2 December and finish away at fifth-placed Moreira de Cónegos.

Netherlands: No Head-to-Heads Left

• Ajax 53
• Feyenoord 49
• Eindhoven 48

The top three have already played each other twice. Huggo's Ajax took 10 of 12 points from those games: 4-1 at Feyenoord, 1-1 at home to them, 2-1 at Eindhoven and 3-0 at home. Ajax are unbeaten in 17 and unbeaten away all season (8W 3D). They also have the easiest run-in of any leader in this piece: their opponents average 12.8th and only three are in the top eight. Slice's Feyenoord are unbeaten in ten, but they can only wait for Ajax to slip against weaker sides. Eindhoven have taken seven points from their last six.

England: Saved for the Final Day

• Liverpool 49
• London Red 44
• Burton-upon-Trent 39

Biarritz's Liverpool have won eight in a row and are unbeaten in 15, including a 1-0 win at London Red on 7 October. But no leader here has a harder run-in. Their opponents average 9.8th, six are in the top eight, and it starts on Saturday at home to third-placed Burton. Liverpool have also been far better away (8W 4D 1L, 24-6) than at home (6W 3D 1L, 15-10), and nine of their last 15 games are at home.

Sjow's London Red have kept clean sheets in seven of their last eight; the exception was that defeat to Liverpool. They have conceded 12 goals, the fewest in the division. The season ends with Liverpool v London Red on 23 December. If London Red can cut the gap to a single win before then, that game will decide the title.

Italy: Roma's Home Problem

• Roma 44
• Torino White 40
• Milano Red 40
• Napoli 38

GreenFuryx3's Roma are unbeaten away (8W 5D, 17-5), and all three of their games against these rivals were draws away from home. At home it's a different story: eight goals in ten games, and all three league defeats, including a 5-0 loss to Milano Blue. Nine of their last 15 are at home. That includes Milano Red on 18 November, then Torino White and Napoli in the last two rounds.

ManagerElite's Torino White are unbeaten in seven and unbeaten at home (5W 5D, 11-3), but they have the hardest schedule of any contender: opponents average 9.6th, and seven are in the top eight. Milano Red play Torino White and Roma within four days in mid-November. looplab's Napoli are fading, with five points from their last six games.

France and Spain

Janca's Paris (45) are unbeaten against Marseille (41) and Lorient (40), and Lorient still have to visit Paris on 21 November. ElChapito's Marseille have drawn their last four. In Spain, Ralek17's Barcelona lost in Gameweek 23 and are still 11 clear of Sevilla Red.

The Verdict

• Germany: Bayern. They have already beaten both chasers. Their only weakness is away trips to smaller clubs, which they still have to make, but no rival has shown it can beat them.
• Portugal: Lisboa, just. Porto won the head-to-heads, but Lisboa are in better form.
• Netherlands: Ajax. Head-to-heads done, easiest run-in, unbeaten in 17.
• England: Liverpool, though London Red can take it to the final day.
• Italy: Roma, my least confident call. If their home form doesn't improve, Torino White are best placed to overtake them.
• France: Paris.
• Spain: Barcelona.

Saturday has two top-of-the-table games: Bayern v Hoffenheim and Liverpool v Burton. A home win in either would leave the visitors 13 or more points behind with 14 to play.