Five-nil. At home. A man down from the fifth minute. On Saturday Roma lost 0-5 to Milano Blue. That cost them top spot, and it also showed the one weakness their run-in can't hide.

Napoli won 1-0 at Firenze, with Marc Cucurella scoring on 62 minutes, and now lead ITA Division 1 on goal difference. Milano Red lost too, beaten 1-0 at home by Lazio with 14 minutes left. With 18 rounds to go:

• Napoli — 37 pts, GD +11, 4 pts from last five
• Roma — 37 pts, GD +7, 8 pts from last five
• Milano Red — 36 pts, GD +6, 12 pts from last five
• Torino White — 33 pts, GD +6, 8 pts from last five

Italy: the venue flip

Strength of schedule won't separate them. Measured by their opponents' current points per game, all four run-ins fall between 1.29 and 1.32. That's as good as level. The difference is where the contenders play each other.

In the first half, Milano Red hosted Roma, Napoli and Torino White and took seven points from nine (1-1, 2-0, 1-0). Roma went to all three grounds and drew all three. The second half reverses that.

On Discord, GreenFuryx was quick to point out that Roma are unbeaten on the road:

+ Roma unbeaten on road 💪

Fair enough. Away from home they're W6 D5 L0, with 23 points from 11 games and only five goals conceded. The home record is the problem. They've taken 14 points from nine games there, scored eight, conceded nine and failed to score five times. Ten of their last 18 are at home, including Milano Red (18 Nov), Torino White (19 Dec) and Napoli (23 Dec). Saturday was the extreme case. Justin Roth was sent off on five minutes, Mika Biereth scored a hat-trick inside 11 minutes, and Milano Blue were 4-0 up by the 16th. Up front, Roma rely heavily on Artem Dovbyk: his 10 goals are nearly half of their 21 and top the division.

Milano Red have the opposite problem. Four of their five remaining games against the current top six are away. They go to Torino White (14 Nov) and Roma (18 Nov) four days apart, then Lecco (16 Dec) and Napoli (19 Dec). Only Como come to them. All ten of their points from 15 against the top six came at home, and the one defeat was at Como. On the road they're W5 D2 L2. Respectable, not dominant.

Napoli have scored the most goals (31) and have the second-highest-rated squad in the division (88, behind only Milano Blue's 89). They also have the worst record of the four against the top six: four points from 15. Their last five games are all against current top-six sides: Como away, Lecco at home, Torino White away, Milano Red at home, Roma away. The next few weeks are crowded too. With cup and Continental League ties added, looplab's side play seven times in 20 days from tomorrow. Roma play four. First up on Saturday: Milano Blue, the side that just put five past Roma, who they then meet again in the Continental League on 26 October.

Torino White are unbeaten at home (W5 D4 L0). ManagerElite's side host Milano Red and Napoli before going to Roma. At the very least, they'll decide who doesn't win it.

Roma, meanwhile, get the gentlest next six games of anyone. Bergamo, Torino Red, Monza, Udine, Pisa and Genova Red all sit 11th or lower and average 1.12 points per game, and Roma have no cup or continental fixtures left. If GreenFuryx3's side are going to build a cushion, it has to be now.

The dates that decide it:

• 14 Nov — Torino White v Milano Red
• 18 Nov — Roma v Milano Red
• 16 Dec — Torino White v Napoli
• 19 Dec — Napoli v Milano Red, Roma v Torino White
• 23 Dec — Roma v Napoli

Germany: home fortress v road specialists

Bayern have 50 points, Dortmund 47 and Frankfurt 44. Bayern have won ten straight league games and are W9 D1 L0 at home. Four of their five remaining top-six games are at home: Dortmund this Saturday, Stuttgart (21 Oct, the side that beat them 6-0), Hoffenheim (31 Oct) and Frankfurt (25 Nov). Only Leverkusen (28 Nov) is away. Dortmund are unbeaten away (W7 D2), which is just as well, because all four of krille120's remaining top-six games are on the road: Bayern, Hoffenheim (24 Oct), Frankfurt (21 Nov) and Leverkusen (25 Nov). They also have two Continental League ties and a cup tie already scheduled. Whatever happens on Saturday, the run-in suits DerKaiser.

England: the hard part is done

Liverpool lead with 40 points, ahead of London Red on 35 and Crystal Palace on 34. They've won five straight, and Biarritz's side have already played most of their hardest games: both Palace fixtures (1-1, 3-2) and a 1-0 win at London Red. Of their remaining top-six games, only Bournemouth (2 Dec) is away, and London Red visit on the final day, 23 December. As an Arsenal girl I'd love to talk up Sjow's London Red, who have 12 points from their last 15. But they have five top-six games left to Liverpool's four, and the last of them is that trip to Liverpool.

Spain: no contest

Barcelona are seven clear of Donostia-San Sebastián and nine clear of Palma. They're unbeaten at home (W9 D1), all four of their remaining top-six opponents come to them, and they have the easiest run-in of the 15 contenders I measured: opponents averaging 1.25 points per game. Ralek17's side lost at Palma and at Donostia in the first half. This time both visit Barcelona, Palma on 21 October and Donostia on 28 November.

The calls

• Italy: Milano Red. Only just. They have the best recent form (12 from 15), the best record against the top six and just one extra fixture to play. The four away trips are a real worry, and I expect the title to be settled at Napoli on 19 December. Napoli have the quality, but seven games in 20 days and a final five against the top six is a lot to ask. Roma won't win it unless their home form improves.
• Germany: Bayern. Hosting four of their five top-six rivals is a big advantage.
• England: Liverpool. Five clear, with their two toughest trips already behind them.
• Spain: Barcelona. Nobody else is close.