A few days ago in general chat, leedsarewe dismissed half of Europe in one line:

Bundesliga, Liga Portugal, Eredivisie and most other leagues in Europe are just as bad as it's the same 2/3 teams every season

He may be right about the names. He's wrong about the margins. On Saturday 17 October, in Gameweek 21, the leaders of Germany, the Netherlands and Portugal all play their closest challenger, and none of them is more than three points clear. There's also a London derby between second and third, a Clásico with Madrid White down in 11th, and a bottom-three game in north London. It's the most loaded weekend of Season 4 so far.

Kick-offs are at 18:00 UTC. England and Portugal kick off at 19:00.

Bayern v Dortmund: 50 pts v 47

Both sides' numbers are hard to believe. DerKaiser's Bayern have won 13 league games in a row since losing 3-1 at Mönchengladbach on 15 August, scoring 33 and conceding seven. krille120's Dortmund are unbeaten in 18 league games, have kept 14 clean sheets in 20, and have conceded six all season.

Their only defeat came at home to Bayern on matchday two: 1-0, with Bayern outshooting them 19 to 11. As I noted at the halfway mark, the head-to-head results favour Bayern.

If Bayern win, the gap goes to six. If Dortmund win, the clubs are level on 50, and Dortmund's goal difference (+26) is already two better than Bayern's.

Dortmund are hard to scout. They have used five different formations in their last five matches, with Long Ball in four of them. The one time krille120 went Defensive, at home to Leipzig, it ended 1-1. Neither squad has an injury that lasts past kick-off. Dortmund do have to go to Porto for a Continental League game on Monday, while Bayern have no midweek fixture.

Ajax v Feyenoord: 46 pts v 44

Huggo's Ajax won 4-1 at Feyenoord in July and have the division's best attack, with 44 goals. They look less sure of themselves now, though: three draws in their last six, including 1-1 at Utrecht last weekend. Their goals come from all over the team, and no Ajax player has more than seven.

Slice's Feyenoord are the opposite: one main finisher and strong form. Santiago Giménez leads the league with 14 goals, and Kingsley Coman has seven goals and six assists. Feyenoord have won five in a row. The latest, 2-0 against Eindhoven, pulled them level with PSV on 44 points. Their squad is valued at 87.1 million SVC, little more than half of Ajax's 152.6 million.

Ajax will be without centre-back Josip Šutalo and midfielder Mateus Espanha Fernandes. Feyenoord are missing Ramiz Zerrouki and Lasso Coulibaly, and they host London Red in Europe on Monday. Eindhoven are at home to 11th-placed Alkmaar, so a Feyenoord win could leave three clubs within a point of each other.

Porto v Lisboa: 46 pts v 49

This is the best attack on the weekend's card against one of its meanest defences. SAIKARU's Lisboa have 67 goals in 20 games, and 26 in their last six, all of them wins. SoccerversePortugal's Porto have conceded six all season, and they inflicted Lisboa's only defeat, winning 2-1 in Lisbon on matchday two.

Porto's weak spot is away form: both their defeats came on the road, the latest 1-0 at Benfica on Saturday. This one is at home, where they've won their last three league games without conceding.

Lisboa have the bigger problem. Their centre-forward, with 19 goals in 15 appearances, is injured until 3 November. Pedro Gonçalves (eight goals, five assists) will have to carry more of the load. Porto's Samu Aghehowa has ten goals. Even if Porto win, they only draw level on points, and Lisboa's goal difference is 32 better.

London Red v Crystal Palace: 35 pts v 34

I should declare an interest: I support London Red, and this one worries me. Sjow's side have lost two of their last three home league games, to Chelsea and Liverpool. Strategos's Palace beat them 1-0 in July. Both clubs also play in Europe on Monday. Viktor Gyökeres, London Red's top scorer with nine goals, is fit.

A draw here would suit Liverpool, who are five points clear. Biarritz's leaders go to Newcastle without Virgil van Dijk, who is injured until 13 November.

Elsewhere at the top

• Madrid White v Barcelona. Gevenito's Madrid White are 11th, 19 points behind Ralek17's leaders, even though their squad is valued at 438 million SVC. Barcelona won the reverse fixture 1-0 and lead the table by seven. Both sides are missing at least one midfielder rated 90 or above.
• Donostia v Madrid Red. Second plays fourth in Spain. The first meeting finished 2-2.
• Italy. Four clubs are within four points of each other. Napoli (37) host Milano Blue and Roma (37) visit Bergamo. Milano Red (36) go to Bologna, who won 2-0 at their ground in July. Torino White (33) play the derby away at Torino Red, which finished 0-0 last time, and they'll be without 90-rated Douglas Soares.
• France. Paris and Marseille are level on 38. Paris host 13th-placed Nice, and Marseille travel to Strasbourg.

Down below

• Tottenham v Nottingham (18th v 17th). Nickx's Spurs have the biggest bank balance in the division at 192.7 million SVC, yet they've won only three of 20 and haven't won in six. BOA's Nottingham have scored eight goals all season, the fewest in the league, including none in their last four games, all defeats. They're also without Giorgian de Arrascaeta until 23 October. A Spurs win would lift them out of the bottom three.
• Paderborn v Bremen. 18th plays 17th, and both have 16 points. Paderborn won 2-1 in Bremen in July.
• Mönchengladbach v Köln. In the Rhine derby, 16th-placed Gladbach are one of only two sides to have beaten Bayern this season, but they have just 14 goals in 20 games. On the German channel, Herzog asked: "Borussia Mönchengladbach schießt zu wenig Tore. Was tun?" (Gladbach don't score enough; what do we do?)
• Valencia v Alaves, Udine v H Verona, Le Havre v Saint-Étienne. These are three more six-pointers with only one or two points between the teams.

My calls

• Bayern 1-1 Dortmund. The engine's squad comparison gives Bayern only a small edge (best XI rated 92.1 to 90.4), and Dortmund rarely concede.
• Ajax 1-2 Feyenoord. My boldest call. Giménez is in form and Ajax are short at the back.
• Porto 1-0 Lisboa. Without their striker, Lisboa's attack loses its main threat.
• London Red 2-1 Crystal Palace. I'm picking this with my heart, and at least half my head.
• Tottenham 1-0 Nottingham. Nottingham haven't scored in four games, and I don't see that changing here.