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Analysis8 Oct 202617 views

HALFWAY LEDGER: Bayern Hold the Aces as Milano Red Close In

After 19 games, the results between the contenders tell you more than the table does. Laura Martinez goes through the head-to-heads in Germany, Italy and England and picks her champions.

Written by

Laura

Soccerverse Times' match & tactics analyst — a Londoner and Arsenal supporter, measured, precise, and fluent in the language of the game.

HALFWAY LEDGER: Bayern Hold the Aces as Milano Red Close In

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Every title race has a second table that nobody prints: the results between the contenders themselves. Gameweek 20 starts the reverse fixtures this weekend, so the first-half version of that table is now complete. In three of the four big leagues it points the same way.

Germany has the tightest top three, Italy the smallest gap, and England the biggest game of the weekend. Spain gets a footnote.

Germany: Bayern have already won both away games

  • Bayern — 47 pts, form WWWWWW
  • Dortmund — 44 pts, WWWWWD
  • Frankfurt — 43 pts, WWWDWD

DerKaiser's Bayern have won 12 league games in a row since losing 3-1 at Mönchengladbach on 15 August. They have scored 31 and conceded six in that run. More importantly, both of their wins over the chasers came away from home: 1-0 at Dortmund in July, when they outshot krille120's side 19 to 11, and 3-2 at Frankfurt on 2 September.

  • Bayern — 6 pts from 2
  • Dortmund — 3 pts from 2 (1-0 at home to Frankfurt)
  • Frankfurt — 0 pts from 2

Those are Frankfurt's only league defeats all season. Fitz's side have been excellent against everyone else and beaten by the only two clubs that matter.

Dortmund's case rests on the best defence in Europe's big four divisions: six goals conceded in 19 games, 13 clean sheets and 17 league games unbeaten since that defeat to Bayern. Their saved tactics are a 4-2-2-2 that starts in Defensive mode and switches to Counter after 15 minutes. Bayern's is a 4-5-1 Defensive that plays mostly in Passing mode. Neither setup is built to chase a game, so the first goal in Munich on 17 October may well decide it.

The fixture list does Dortmund no favours. On Saturday they host Stuttgart, who thrashed Bayern 6-0 in July and beat Dortmund 2-1 in the Continental League. Then they travel to Porto on Monday and Bayern the following Saturday. Bayern go to Leipzig this weekend, have no European trip in midweek, and then host Dortmund and, four days later, Stuttgart. Frankfurt host Leverkusen, who are unbeaten in six and have scored 40 league goals. In November, Frankfurt play Dortmund at home and Bayern away four days apart.

Verdict: Bayern. Dortmund have to win in Munich to make this a race.

Italy: one point in it, and the momentum has switched

  • Roma — 37 pts, WLWWDD
  • Milano Red — 36 pts, WDWWWW
  • Napoli — 34 pts, WWLLLD

Before Gameweek 19, Roma led Milano Red by three points. Milano Red won 1-0 at Firenze, Roma drew 2-2 in Naples, and the gap is now one.

tigerbakerx took charge of Milano Red for the 1-1 draw with Pisa on 19 September. Since then they have taken 13 points from 15, scoring seven and conceding one. They also top the head-to-head table:

  • Milano Red — 4 pts (1-1 v Roma, 2-0 v Napoli, both at home)
  • Roma — 2 pts (two away draws)
  • Napoli — 1 pt

The catch is that both return games are away. GreenFuryx3's Roma share the best defence in the division (nine conceded) and are unbeaten on the road, with six wins and five draws. Their weakness is at home. Both league defeats came at their own ground, 1-0 to Lecco and 3-0 to Genova Blue, and they went out of the cup at home to Firenze on 5 October. Eleven of their last 19 league games are at home, starting on Saturday against Milano Blue, whose squad has the highest average rating in the league (89).

looplab's Napoli lost three league games in a row before the draw with Roma. That is seven points from their last six, and they go to Firenze next.

Dates to circle: Roma v Milano Red on 18 November, Napoli v Milano Red on 19 December, and Roma v Napoli on the final day.

Verdict: Milano Red. I tipped them last Sunday and I'm more confident now. If they beat Lazio and Roma fail to beat Milano Blue, Milano Red go top on Saturday night.

England: Saturday at Anfield sets the shape

  • Liverpool — 37 pts, DDWWWW
  • Crystal Palace — 34 pts, LWWWLW
  • Bournemouth — 33 pts, WLDDDW
  • Burton-upon-Trent — 33 pts, WLDDDW
  • London Red — 32 pts, LLWWWL

Biarritz's Liverpool are unbeaten in 11 league games and have kept seven clean sheets in a row. Wednesday's 1-0 win at London Red, a result this Arsenal supporter would rather not dwell on, meant they finished the first half unbeaten against the rest of the top five:

  • Liverpool — 8 pts (wins at Burton and London Red, draws at Palace and v Bournemouth)
  • London Red — 6 pts
  • Bournemouth — 5 pts
  • Crystal Palace — 4 pts
  • Burton — 4 pts

Strategos's Palace have the second-best recent form in that group, but not the results against their rivals: they lost 2-1 at home to Burton and 3-1 at Bournemouth. They go to Anfield on Saturday and then to London Red. A defeat would leave them six behind. A win would put them level on 37, with Liverpool ahead only on goal difference.

Burton deserve a word. During a debate in general chat on Thursday about whether smaller clubs can ever break through, one voice made the pessimist's case:

No one can legit compete with the big teams over time

— Marius

traener's Burton have the smallest stadium in the division (27,512) and the lowest average squad rating (77). They are four points off the top and have already won at Palace. They go to Aston Villa on Saturday.

Sjow's London Red visit Manchester Blue, play at Feyenoord on Monday and then host Palace. Theramoe's Bournemouth go to a Manchester Red side that have lost their last two.

Verdict: Liverpool. A draw on Saturday would suit them fine, and they managed one at Palace in the first half.

Spain, briefly

Ralek17's Barcelona are five points clear on 43. Donostia-San Sebastián have 38, and Palma de Mallorca, another small club (average rating 78), have 36 after five wins in six. The next three league games will show whether this is a race: Roda away, Madrid White away, then Mallorca at home.

The calls

  • Germany: Bayern. Leipzig away is a potential trap, but Dortmund have the harder weekend against Stuttgart.
  • Italy: Milano Red, by fewer than three points.
  • England: Liverpool. Saturday: Liverpool 1-0 Crystal Palace.
  • Spain: Barcelona, unless they drop points in at least two of their next three.

Related Topics

AnalysisBayernDortmundFrankfurtDerKaiserkrille120

In the tables

ITA Division 1

ITA · Division 0 · Season 4

#ClubPGDPts
1RomaGreenFuryx319+1237
2Milano Redtigerbakerx19+736
3Napolilooplab19+1034
4Torino WhiteManagerElite19+530
5LeccoSacin19+629
6Genova BlueQuinzas19+228
7Bolognagreenboy19+727
8ComoTass19+227
9PisaCosmicVoyager19-526
10Milano BlueJavierZanetti19+625
11LazioFelpa1019-125
12BergamoAllancole1234519+124
13Torino RedSotera19023
14FirenzeFatincasaSV19+121
15Monzabenito19-821
16CatanzaroUnAndalu19-1021
17Genova RedAui19-719
18H VeronaSanx19-1318
19Udinethiagoroszendo19-1017
20Sassuolosurl19-515

ENG Division 1

ENG · Division 0 · Season 4

#ClubPGDPts
1LiverpoolBiarritz19+1537
2Crystal PalaceStrategos19+934
3BournemouthTheramoe19+633
4Burton-upon-Trenttraener19+533
5London RedSjow19+1032
6EvertonInvincible19+330
7Manchester RedMastermind19+928
8Aston Villaastonvilla19+428
9ChelseaKiran19+227
10Manchester BluePhesiola19026
11FulhamAliManager19+624
12LeedsSc1ss0rZ19-524
13BrightonJoachim19-323
14BrentfordGreenFuryx19022
15NewcastleGravipod19-721
16West HamSupernovaOrbit19-320
17NottinghamBOA19-920
18TottenhamNickx19-518
19LeicesterTedlasso19-2616
20CoventryRaiden119-1115

League standings for the clubs in this story.

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