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Analysis8 Oct 2026792 views

HALFWAY LEDGER: Bayern Hold the Aces as Milano Red Close In

After 19 games, the results between the contenders tell you more than the table does. Laura Martinez goes through the head-to-heads in Germany, Italy and England and picks her champions.

Written by

Laura

Soccerverse Times' match & tactics analyst — a Londoner and Arsenal supporter, measured, precise, and fluent in the language of the game.

HALFWAY LEDGER: Bayern Hold the Aces as Milano Red Close In

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Every title race has a second table that nobody prints: the results between the contenders themselves. Gameweek 20 starts the reverse fixtures this weekend, so the first-half version of that table is now complete. In three of the four big leagues it points the same way.

Germany has the tightest top three, Italy the smallest gap, and England the biggest game of the weekend. Spain gets a footnote.

Germany: Bayern have already won both away games

  • Bayern — 47 pts, form WWWWWW
  • Dortmund — 44 pts, WWWWWD
  • Frankfurt — 43 pts, WWWDWD

DerKaiser's Bayern have won 12 league games in a row since losing 3-1 at Mönchengladbach on 15 August. They have scored 31 and conceded six in that run. More importantly, both of their wins over the chasers came away from home: 1-0 at Dortmund in July, when they outshot krille120's side 19 to 11, and 3-2 at Frankfurt on 2 September.

  • Bayern — 6 pts from 2
  • Dortmund — 3 pts from 2 (1-0 at home to Frankfurt)
  • Frankfurt — 0 pts from 2

Those are Frankfurt's only league defeats all season. Fitz's side have been excellent against everyone else and beaten by the only two clubs that matter.

Dortmund's case rests on the best defence in Europe's big four divisions: six goals conceded in 19 games, 13 clean sheets and 17 league games unbeaten since that defeat to Bayern. Their saved tactics are a 4-2-2-2 that starts in Defensive mode and switches to Counter after 15 minutes. Bayern's is a 4-5-1 Defensive that plays mostly in Passing mode. Neither setup is built to chase a game, so the first goal in Munich on 17 October may well decide it.

The fixture list does Dortmund no favours. On Saturday they host Stuttgart, who thrashed Bayern 6-0 in July and beat Dortmund 2-1 in the Continental League. Then they travel to Porto on Monday and Bayern the following Saturday. Bayern go to Leipzig this weekend, have no European trip in midweek, and then host Dortmund and, four days later, Stuttgart. Frankfurt host Leverkusen, who are unbeaten in six and have scored 40 league goals. In November, Frankfurt play Dortmund at home and Bayern away four days apart.

Verdict: Bayern. Dortmund have to win in Munich to make this a race.

Italy: one point in it, and the momentum has switched

  • Roma — 37 pts, WLWWDD
  • Milano Red — 36 pts, WDWWWW
  • Napoli — 34 pts, WWLLLD

Before Gameweek 19, Roma led Milano Red by three points. Milano Red won 1-0 at Firenze, Roma drew 2-2 in Naples, and the gap is now one.

tigerbakerx took charge of Milano Red for the 1-1 draw with Pisa on 19 September. Since then they have taken 13 points from 15, scoring seven and conceding one. They also top the head-to-head table:

  • Milano Red — 4 pts (1-1 v Roma, 2-0 v Napoli, both at home)
  • Roma — 2 pts (two away draws)
  • Napoli — 1 pt

The catch is that both return games are away. GreenFuryx3's Roma share the best defence in the division (nine conceded) and are unbeaten on the road, with six wins and five draws. Their weakness is at home. Both league defeats came at their own ground, 1-0 to Lecco and 3-0 to Genova Blue, and they went out of the cup at home to Firenze on 5 October. Eleven of their last 19 league games are at home, starting on Saturday against Milano Blue, whose squad has the highest average rating in the league (89).

looplab's Napoli lost three league games in a row before the draw with Roma. That is seven points from their last six, and they go to Firenze next.

Dates to circle: Roma v Milano Red on 18 November, Napoli v Milano Red on 19 December, and Roma v Napoli on the final day.

Verdict: Milano Red. I tipped them last Sunday and I'm more confident now. If they beat Lazio and Roma fail to beat Milano Blue, Milano Red go top on Saturday night.

England: Saturday at Anfield sets the shape

  • Liverpool — 37 pts, DDWWWW
  • Crystal Palace — 34 pts, LWWWLW
  • Bournemouth — 33 pts, WLDDDW
  • Burton-upon-Trent — 33 pts, WLDDDW
  • London Red — 32 pts, LLWWWL

Biarritz's Liverpool are unbeaten in 11 league games and have kept seven clean sheets in a row. Wednesday's 1-0 win at London Red, a result this Arsenal supporter would rather not dwell on, meant they finished the first half unbeaten against the rest of the top five:

  • Liverpool — 8 pts (wins at Burton and London Red, draws at Palace and v Bournemouth)
  • London Red — 6 pts
  • Bournemouth — 5 pts
  • Crystal Palace — 4 pts
  • Burton — 4 pts

Strategos's Palace have the second-best recent form in that group, but not the results against their rivals: they lost 2-1 at home to Burton and 3-1 at Bournemouth. They go to Anfield on Saturday and then to London Red. A defeat would leave them six behind. A win would put them level on 37, with Liverpool ahead only on goal difference.

Burton deserve a word. During a debate in general chat on Thursday about whether smaller clubs can ever break through, one voice made the pessimist's case:

No one can legit compete with the big teams over time

— Marius

traener's Burton have the smallest stadium in the division (27,512) and the lowest average squad rating (77). They are four points off the top and have already won at Palace. They go to Aston Villa on Saturday.

Sjow's London Red visit Manchester Blue, play at Feyenoord on Monday and then host Palace. Theramoe's Bournemouth go to a Manchester Red side that have lost their last two.

Verdict: Liverpool. A draw on Saturday would suit them fine, and they managed one at Palace in the first half.

Spain, briefly

Ralek17's Barcelona are five points clear on 43. Donostia-San Sebastián have 38, and Palma de Mallorca, another small club (average rating 78), have 36 after five wins in six. The next three league games will show whether this is a race: Roda away, Madrid White away, then Mallorca at home.

The calls

  • Germany: Bayern. Leipzig away is a potential trap, but Dortmund have the harder weekend against Stuttgart.
  • Italy: Milano Red, by fewer than three points.
  • England: Liverpool. Saturday: Liverpool 1-0 Crystal Palace.
  • Spain: Barcelona, unless they drop points in at least two of their next three.

Related Topics

AnalysisBayernDortmundFrankfurtDerKaiserkrille120

In the tables

ITA Division 1

ITA · Division 0 · Season 4

#ClubPGDPts
1RomaGreenFuryx325+1350
2Torino WhiteManagerElite25+1044
3Milano Redtigerbakerx25+743
4Milano BlueJavierZanetti25+2341
5ComoTass25+1341
6Napolilooplab25+940
7LazioFelpa1025+338
8LeccoSacin25+737
9Bolognagreenboy25+936
10Genova BlueQuinzas25-233
11BergamoAllancole1234525-231
12PisaCosmicVoyager25-631
13Genova RedAui25-628
14FirenzeFatincasaSV25-127
15CatanzaroUnAndalu25-1227
16Torino RedSotera25-925
17H VeronaSanx25-1425
18Udinethiagoroszendo25-1524
19Sassuolosurl25-623
20Monzabenito25-2122

ENG Division 1

ENG · Division 0 · Season 4

#ClubPGDPts
1LiverpoolBiarritz25+2453
2London RedSjow25+2048
3Burton-upon-Trenttraener25+841
4Manchester RedMastermind25+1239
5Aston Villaastonvilla25+839
6Crystal PalaceStrategos25+539
7ChelseaKiran25+638
8BournemouthTheramoe25+438
9Manchester BluePhesiola25+337
10BrightonJoachim25+436
11FulhamAliManager25+632
12EvertonInvincible25-332
13LeedsSc1ss0rZ25-731
14West HamSupernovaOrbit25-129
15BrentfordGreenFuryx25-628
16NewcastleGravipod25-1128
17NottinghamBOA25-1027
18TottenhamNickx25-723
19CoventryRaiden125-1319
20LeicesterTedlasso25-4217

League standings for the clubs in this story.

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