One point separates first from second in Germany. Two in England. Three in Italy and Spain. With the leading clubs on 18 matches played and 20 still to come, Season 4 is properly alive.

England: three contenders, ten decisive days

Liverpool lead on 34 points, ahead of London Red on 32 and Crystal Palace on 31. The leaders also hold the best goal difference: plus 14, against plus 11 and plus seven.

All three collected 12 points from their last six league matches, but the sequence matters. Liverpool have won three straight without conceding, scoring nine. London Red have also produced three consecutive clean-sheet wins, albeit by a combined four goals. Palace’s run ended with a 1-0 defeat at Chelsea.

Palace do possess the strongest head-to-head evidence: a 1-1 draw with Liverpool and a 1-0 win over London Red. Now the contenders collide:

• 7 October: London Red vs Liverpool
• 10 October: Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
• 17 October: London Red vs Crystal Palace

Liverpool also have a scheduling edge. Their next five fixtures contain no continental match, while both challengers play in Europe between league games. London Red may carry the highest average player rating of the trio at 89, but Liverpool have lost only twice and already own the cushion.

Prediction: Liverpool, narrowly. My Arsenal heart can object; the defensive record and cleaner schedule get the vote.

Germany: attack against two elite defences

This is the tightest race: Bayern have 44 points, Dortmund 43 and Frankfurt 42.

Bayern and Dortmund have taken the full 18 points from their last six league games. Frankfurt have collected 16. The profiles are fascinating: Bayern lead the division with 39 goals, yet Dortmund have conceded only five and Frankfurt nine. Bayern have allowed 18.

The head-to-head record explains why Bayern remain favourites. They won 1-0 at Dortmund and 3-2 at Frankfurt; Dortmund beat Frankfurt 1-0. In the three-team mini-table, Bayern already have six away points.

The return with Dortmund lands in Munich on 17 October. Before that, Bayern face Hamburg and Leipzig, while Dortmund host Leipzig and Stuttgart. Frankfurt must visit Stuttgart before hosting Leverkusen.

Prediction: Bayern. Dortmund’s defence gives them the best chance of overturning the leaders, but Bayern’s scoring output and perfect record against both rivals are stronger evidence.

Italy: Roma lead, Milano Red are flying

Roma sit on 36 points, with Napoli and Milano Red together on 33. Roma’s case rests on a remarkable defensive line: 19 scored, only seven conceded.

Momentum belongs elsewhere. Milano Red have taken 16 points from their last six, while Roma collected 11 and Napoli nine. Napoli have lost three successive league matches, the latest a 2-0 defeat at Milano Red. Milano also drew 1-1 with Roma earlier in the season.

Gameweek 19 sends Roma to Napoli on 7 October. Milano Red visit Firenze, then face Lazio, Bologna and Sassuolo — none currently in the top five. Roma’s following run includes Milano Blue and a trip to Bergamo.

Prediction: Milano Red to overhaul Roma. It is the bold call, because Roma’s defence is genuinely title-grade. But five wins and a draw from six, plus the kinder immediate league sequence, make Milano the side with the clearest momentum.

Spain: Barcelona’s cushion is under pressure

Barcelona lead on 40 points. Donostia-San Sebastián have 37, while Madrid Red and Roda share third on 34.

The leading pair are almost mirror images: Barcelona have scored 33 and conceded 11; Donostia have scored 32 and conceded 11. Donostia also won their first meeting 3-2. Madrid Red held Barcelona 1-1 and have taken a league-best 16 points from their last six.

Donostia’s current burst is especially sharp: three straight league wins, nine goals scored and none conceded. Their next four include Vallecas, Madrid Red and Madrid White. Barcelona face Alaves, Roda and Madrid White before the return against Donostia at home on 28 November.

Barcelona’s insurance is squad quality. Their average player rating is 90, compared with Madrid Red’s 84 and Donostia’s 80. Over another 20 matches, that depth matters.

Prediction: Barcelona, but not comfortably. Donostia have already proved they can beat them, and Madrid Red are moving fastest. The leaders’ margin is real; so is the pressure.