Four races. Four freshly installed leaders. Burton-upon-Trent climbed from third to first in England; Donostia-San Sebastián, Napoli and Frankfurt each rose from second.

None leads by more than one point. Burton and Frankfurt are only first on the ordering of level points. With 13 matches played and ten unplayed league rounds currently listed through October 24, this is no coronation. It is a sprint.

For the fixture comparison below, a higher average opponent position means a theoretically softer run-in. Form covers the latest six league matches.

England: five clubs, two points

• Burton-upon-Trent — 24 points; 11 from the last six, scoring seven and conceding six
• Bournemouth — 24 points; 14 from six, scoring eight and conceding once
• London Red — 23 points; 11 from six, scoring five and conceding four
• Liverpool — 23 points; nine from six
• Crystal Palace — 22 points; eight from six

There is no honest three-club cut here. Palace in fifth are only two points off the summit.

Bournemouth have the momentum: four wins, two draws and just one goal conceded across six matches. Yet the head-to-head evidence carries a flashing warning. London Red beat them 6-1 and also won 3-1 at Burton.

That 6-1 was clinical rather than territorial. Bournemouth had 53% possession and edged the shot count 15-14, but London Red put ten efforts on target and converted six. London also possess the best full-season defensive record in the leading group, with seven conceded.

The fixture map helps Liverpool most. Their remaining opponents average 13th in the current table and five are in the bottom six, although six of Liverpool’s ten matches are away. Bournemouth have six at home. Burton face only two current top-six sides.

Gameweek 14 immediately removes somebody’s momentum when Bournemouth host Palace. It is the most consequential English fixture of the round.

Spain: Donostia earned their margin

• Donostia-San Sebastián — 28 points; 15 from six, with an 11-4 goal return
• Barcelona — 27 points; 11 from six, with an 11-5 return
• Vallecas — 24 points; ten from six, but five scored and nine conceded

Donostia’s one-point lead is reinforced by a 3-2 victory over Barcelona. It was another lesson in finishing: Donostia had 44% possession and only four shots, but scored with all three efforts on target. Barcelona produced 13 shots.

That result showed ruthless execution, not control. Barcelona remain dangerous because their scheduled opponents average 12.1 in the table, slightly softer than Donostia’s 11.3. Both face two current top-six teams, but Barcelona must travel six times while Donostia have a balanced five-home, five-away split.

Vallecas lost 4-0 at home to Barcelona, have the hardest schedule of the three and must visit Donostia on October 7. Their four-point deficit looks considerably larger once those obstacles are added.

Italy: Napoli’s fire meets Roma’s wall

• Napoli — 27 points; six straight wins, scoring 15 and conceding three
• Roma — 26 points; seven from six, scoring three and conceding two
• Torino White — 23 points; 11 from six, with an 8-4 goal return

Roma’s three goals conceded across the entire campaign is the best defensive mark in these four title races. The problem is the other end: four draws in their latest six have allowed Napoli to sweep past them.

Napoli have the hardest run-in of any Italian contender. Their remaining opponents average 8.1, with five fixtures against the current top six. Roma’s figure is 11.0 and Torino White’s 10.5.

The critical wrinkle is venue. None of the leading three has met another yet, but Napoli host Torino White on September 26 and Roma on October 7. Torino White host Roma between them on October 3. Napoli therefore get both six-pointers on their own pitch.

Germany: the fixture list challenges the form book

• Frankfurt — 29 points; ten from six, scoring ten and conceding seven
• Bayern — 29 points; 18 from six, scoring 18 and conceding five
• Dortmund — 28 points; unbeaten in six but held to four draws
• Hoffenheim — 28 points; 15 from six after five wins and a defeat

Bayern are the form side, emphatically. They also won 3-2 at Frankfurt, producing 22 shots to Frankfurt’s 16 despite having 48% possession. Dortmund beat Frankfurt 1-0, while Frankfurt dismantled Hoffenheim 3-0.

Then comes the schedule. Frankfurt’s remaining opponents average 14.2 in the current table; six sit in the bottom six, and Frankfurt have no further match against another current top-four club in the published run-in.

Dortmund’s opponents average 8.5, Bayern’s 8.9 and Hoffenheim’s 10.8. Bayern host Dortmund on October 17. Hoffenheim then host Dortmund on the final listed round, October 24. Frankfurt finish away to a current bottom-six side.

Frankfurt must negotiate six away games, but the disparity in opponent strength is too large to ignore.

Laura’s verdict

• England: Bournemouth — the best six-match return, one goal conceded and six home fixtures outweigh the old London Red scar.
• Spain: Donostia-San Sebastián — the lead, superior form and head-to-head win give them the narrowest of edges.
• Italy: Napoli — six straight wins and home advantage in both remaining contender clashes.
• Germany: Frankfurt — Bayern are playing the better football, but Frankfurt possess the points position and overwhelmingly kinder route.

Germany is the call that changes on the latest evidence. Bayern look like champions; Frankfurt’s fixture list looks like one.