England's trophy is already on the mantelpiece. The continent's is not — and Gameweek 38, the final round of Season 3, is where the maths still bites. Three of the big leagues go to the last day this Wednesday, 24 June, and between them they offer two title races that genuinely cannot be called, a coronation, and several survival fights that you could cover with a single blanket. Forget the calendar: this is the night the season is settled.

Germany: a championship measured in a single goal

This is as tight as a league table gets. Stuttgart and Dortmund are both on 74 points. Both have won 22, drawn 8, lost 7. Both have scored exactly 55 goals. The entire title is separated by one goal at the back — Stuttgart have conceded 20, Dortmund 21 — so a goal difference of +35 noses ahead of +34.

The form lines could not be more different. class21's Stuttgart arrive on six straight wins; krille120's Dortmund, who led this division as recently as last week, have managed just two wins from their closing six and have been hauled in. The fixtures look kind to both: Stuttgart host Heidenheim (16th, and fighting for their own lives), Dortmund travel to bottom side Hannover. Which means it stays exactly where it is — on that solitary goal. Stuttgart hold the whip hand: match Dortmund's result and the title is theirs on the tie-break. Dortmund must win by two clear of whatever Stuttgart manage to rip it away. Frankfurt's Hugo Ekitike leads the scoring charts on 16; Donyell Malen (12) is the man Dortmund will lean on. Behind, Leverkusen and Frankfurt (both 70) have the next two places effectively sewn up, even if the marquee names of Frankfurt versus Bayern still catch the eye.

Spain: the two Madrids, inseparable

Down to the last day, level on everything that matters. Madrid White and Madrid Red are both on 82 points, both 24-10-3. The split is purely up front: White's 67 goals to Red's 47 hands Gevenito's side a goal difference 19 to the good — an unassailable cushion should the pair finish dead level.

So the instructions write themselves. Madrid White simply have to match Madrid Red and the title is theirs; TeteBarriero3's Red must win and pray for a White slip. White get the friendlier-looking trip, to mid-table Sevilla Red (46 points, nothing left to play for); Red go to Donostia-San Sebastián, sixth and dangerous, where Lautaro Martínez (14 goals) is lying in wait. Barcelona (73, five wins and a draw in their last six) are locked into third but visit Valencia with pride on the line.

At the other end it is savage. Las Palmas (17) and Granada (29) are already down. The final ticket out comes down to a one-point shoot-out across two grounds: Valladolid (39) at Vigo, Almería (40) at Santander. Valladolid must win and better Almería's result; one of them goes through the floor.

Italy: Napoli crowned, everyone else still sweating

Nickx's Napoli already have the trophy. On a six-game winning run and six points clear of Milano Blue with a round to spare, the title is sealed — their final act is a lap of honour away at Lazio, where Federico Chiesa and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (nine each) provide the guard of honour.

The live drama sits just beneath them. Milano Blue (68) host Firenze (66) in a straight duel for second — and it pits the division's two sharpest finishers in the same box: Mika Miles Biereth (14) against Moise Kean (13). A draw keeps Milano Blue ahead; Firenze must win to leapfrog them.

And the relegation maths is the meanest on the continent. La Spezia (27) are gone, but seven clubs — from Monza and Sassuolo on 41 down to Empoli, H Verona and Parma on 39 — are packed within two points of one another, all scrapping to avoid the second drop place. The cruelty is in the draw: Empoli, who carry the worst goal difference of the lot, host Europe-chasing Milano Red; Parma host a Roma side still hunting a continental spot; H Verona must see off Como. One ragged 90 minutes and any of them disappears.

The casting vote

Three leagues, one night. Two of the biggest prizes still cannot be separated on points, a relegation cluster you can read in a single breath, and goal difference — that quiet, cruel arbiter — holding the deciding vote in both Germany and Spain. After 37 rounds of football, it has come to inches. Set the alarm for Wednesday.